Table of Contents
What did Hume say about induction?
Hume’s treatment of induction helps to establish the grounds for probability, as he writes in A Treatise of Human Nature that “probability is founded on the presumption of a resemblance betwixt those objects, of which we have had experience, and those, of which we have had none” (Book I, Part III, Section VI).
What is the black swan event theory?
A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.
What is the difference between a black swan and a white swan?
In the Anglo-Saxon world, such an event is called a black swan. Before the English discovered Australia, they were of the firm conviction that all swans were white. Since then, “black swan” has served as a metaphor for extremely unlikely events. Not only are they hardly foreseeable, they also have extreme consequences.
What is a black swan fallacy?
black swan fallacy (plural black swan fallacies) The logical error of discounting the possibility of something in which the arguer ignores contradictory evidence on the basis of past experience.
What are Hume’s two arguments regarding the principle of induction?
The core of Hume’s argument is the claim that all probable arguments presuppose that the future resembles the past (the Uniformity Principle) and that the Uniformity Principle is a matter of fact.
What are the two grounds of induction?
The law of Uniformity of Nature and the causation are formal grounds of induction. The process which guarantee the material truth of induction are called material grounds of induction. Observation and experiment are material grounds of induction.
Can white swans mate with black swans?
Hybrid Swans The black swans could mate with white swans as a hybrid has been successfully bred in captivity and is called a blute swan.
What is an example of a black swan event?
Examples Taleb gives of black swan events include the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. He underscores the point that the black swan event depends upon the observer.
Can black swan events be positive?
A negative Black Swan is one where the downside of the event is unbounded while the upside is capped. Positive Black Swans are just the opposite – those unpredictable, highly impactful events where the upside of the event is unlimited while the downside is capped.
Did Hume believe in induction?
It is important to note that Hume did not deny that he or anyone else formed beliefs on the basis of induction; he denied only that people have any reason to hold such beliefs (therefore, also, no one can know that any such belief is true).
What is Hume’s solution to the problem of induction?
At this point, Hume adopts a “skeptical solution” to the problem: the strategy here is to translate statements about matters the skeptic claims we can’t have any knowledge about into statements about things our knowledge of which is not thrown into question.
What is the paradox of induction?
The paradox of induction is the problem that in all scientific reasoning we form conclusions, called laws, that are of a general nature; however, the evidence we have for those laws is based upon particular experiences.
What is the logic of induction?
Induction is a method of reasoning that moves from specific instances to a general conclusion. Also called inductive reasoning. In an inductive argument, a rhetor (that is, a speaker or writer) collects a number of instances and forms a generalization that is meant to apply to all instances.
Can Black Swan events be positive?
Why is it called a black swan event?
The term Black Swan originates from the (Western) belief that all swans are white because these were the only ones accounted for. However, in 1697 the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Australia. This was an unexpected event in (scientific) history and profoundly changed zoology.
What is a black swan person?
By extension then, a black swan is used to describe any phenomenon which occurs even though people think it impossible. The current use of black swan seems likely to have been inspired by an archaic use dating back several hundred years, which was simply to refer to ‘a person or thing which is extremely rare’.
How do swans choose a mate?
Swans are famous for their lifelong pair bonds. But when one mate dies, the living swan will find another mate. Mating will start in a courtship behavior where a pair of swans nod their heads facing each other and simultaneously shake their wings.
What are the 3 key factors of failure that the black swan denounces?
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme ‘impact’, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.